THE FUNDAMENTAL PREMISE OF THE DRAFT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN IS WRONG
"30,000 new homes is not enough"
That is the assumption of the Loudoun County Planning Commission. They wish to double that number. That is not realistic. It is based on a study that does not consider real-world constraints. There are a few things wrong with this:
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Other population projections vary widely from the model being used
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There is lots of housing already approved
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There are constraints in the real world
The study used as the basis for the 10/23 comprehensive plan draft was done in 2018 under a contract with Kimley-Horn consultants. The study was called an Unconstrained Demand Analysis and predicts how many homes could be sold if they were built. It is a MARKETING study, not a reliable population prediction. This study was not constrained by factors that limited the feasibility of such construction, such as county planning policies. Building and filling the number of homes in this unconstrained model would bring Loudoun’s population close to 600,000 people by 2040.
In contrast, the Washington Council of Governments most recent forecast for Loudoun’s 2040 population is 502,000, and the US Census projects 489,000 (Currently Loudoun’s population is about 400,000).
Look at what is already being built. This clipping from the Washington Post New Homes Guide has one balloon for every separately-named housing development currently being built and sold. With the existing zoning, 30,000 more units can be built, enabling a population growth to about 500,000. Do we really want more than that? Can our taxes, roads and schools handle it? Loudoun has already accepted far more than our share of the region’s growth
The Council of Governments study did find that the region needs to increase the number of housing units (over current plans) by 115,000 homes between now and 2045 to sustain economic growth and improve quality of life.” But this draft plan has Loudoun – 8% of the region –absorbing 25% of the region’s housing gap.
The draft plan has a growth rate of about 1.6% annually. The Revised General Plan (the current plan) has about a 1% growth rate. Both are lower than the recent rates of growth for the county. They should be, as Loudoun matures. Fairfax County once had a growth rate like Loudoun’s. In the last 5 years it has slowed to about 0.3%.
WHAT we build must change – we do need new communities that are denser, walkable, more affordable to middle-income buyers. The Commission is right about that. But Loudoun’s share of the region’s growth can’t continue to be so high.
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This message is the first in a series of articles examining the proposed 2040 Comprehensive Plan as it applies to the Transition Policy Area. You can stay informed on this topic by following the Facebook Group Loudoun Residents for Reasonable Growth, and by signing up for the Transition Area Alliance mailing list here.
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